#Check #your #stocks
Check your stocks: If they re not a bet on Android or iPhone then you re already dead
We need to dig further into the concept of critical mass and how it applies to our Revolution Investing because it is by far the single most important difference between winning and losing in technology over the next decade as we leave the web world and enter the app world.
Yup, simply critical mass. You ve either got critical mass or you don t. You either create the virtuous cycle of more developers creating more products bringing in more consumers to your platform or you don t. The winners vs. losers in the app-based world will be much like the web-based world was which was much like the PC-based world was the winners will be few and will be huge and the losers will be many.
The PC-based world had dozens of platforms and companies try to catch market traction and gain enough critical mass of developers and/or customers to create the virtuous cycle, but only Softee and to a lesser extent, Apple, ever had real success. And by the way, that success entailed huge returns for shareholders along the way in those years as critical mass was being built and the virtuous cycle fed upon itself.
Likewise, the web-based world had dozens of portals, for example. But only Google and to a lesser extent Yahoo/Softee matter in this country. Meanwhile, just yesterday, Lycos, which was once worth more than $12 billion, sold for $36 million. And all of Google s gains since its IPO came while it was gaining marketshare/critical mass in the web-world, and now that s it s already won, it s gone nowhere and/or down for years.
But Google s likely headed higher much higher starting very soon, as both Apple and Google, along with Nokia, are setting themselves up to be the platforms upon which we ll all consumer and/or develop products and services in the next decade. Which might very well mean those three companies have some very big upside coming very soon as the markets start to recognize their building this all-important critical mass and the virtuous cycles begin to feed.
The definition of critical mass, according to Princeton WordNet is:
the minimum amount (of something) required to start or maintain a venture; the battle for the computer market has now reached critical mass ; there is now a critical mass of successful women to take the lead ; they sold the business because it lacked critical mass .
That last quote will be used a lot in future years and I m wondering if we ll be saying exactly that about say, a Microsoft or a Nokia buying Research in Motion when they sold the business it lacked critical mass .
There s no other market like the app-world in history and there s certainly no other market like it ahead of us for the next decade. Google and Apple, and to a lesser extent Nokia, are the clear critical mass contenders, and I ll keep coming back to those two (three) because you ll rarely get an opportunity this clear to get in front of. And I m getting ever-more interested in Nokia as the stock continues to fall.
We re holding a poll at my new app reviews and news site, AppConsumer.com, about what people s favorite device is and it reflects this reality Android s gotten 36% of the votes so far, followed by iPhone at 29% and iPad at 21%. It s not a scientific poll, but it is reflective of an app-concious audience, and it sure does underscore the building critical mass and virtuous cycles therein for Google and Apple.
Come check out AppConsumer.com homepage to vote in the poll (no registration needed), or just come check out the site s new Top 5 Apps Lists section.
And, yes, stick with Google and Apple, as I ve literally done and been preaching on this web-based world for many years now. Is your tech company poised to ride these companies critical mass wave? I m thinking of Netflix, Motorola, Verizon and AT T, among many others that will ride this Android/iPhone/(and Nokia s Symbian) dominance wave. Yours better be poised to ride it too, because it ll take a miracle to compete with those two platforms now that critical mass has been hit.
The only thing that matters for your tech stock now
More plays on the biggest market in history: apps